CRYPTO LITTER
TrendsyToken.io
  • Coin Tracker
  • Bitcoin

    BTC To See Correction Below $10K, Predicts Founder Of Midas

    Can XRP Continue To Outperform Bitcoin?

    Ethereum Price Remains Vulnerable, Will ETH Fall Back To $1K?

    Stablecoin Could be Russia’s Preferred Medium of Exchange for Foreign Trade: Chainalysis

  • Ethereum

    Finalized no. 25 | Ethereum Foundation Blog

    EF-Supported Teams: Research & Development Update

    Grantee Roundup: April 2021 | Ethereum Foundation Blog

    Announcing the EF Fellowship Program, Cohort #2

  • Blockchain
  • NFT Trends

    DeGods Removes Royalties from Resales

    Orange Comet Strikes Partnership with Sir Anthony Hopkins

    CNN’s NFT Platform Shuts Down, Users are Raging

    The SEC Casts a Beady Eye Over Yuga Labs’ Operations

  • Fashion Trends

    What to Wear Hiking This Summer

    35 Affordable Items I’m Eyeing From the Shopbop Sale

    12 Water-Based Makeup Products That Give You Dewy Skin

    The Best Postpartum Clothes I Wore on Maternity Leave

  • VR & Metaverse

    Meta Working With Ray-Ban On New Smart Glasses

    Quest Pro’s Controllers Have “Up To” 8-Hour Battery Life

    VR Developer Schell Games Donates $20K To Charities

    Meta Avatars Getting Legs Soon, And New Graphics Next Year

No Result
View All Result
  • Coin Tracker
  • Bitcoin

    BTC To See Correction Below $10K, Predicts Founder Of Midas

    Can XRP Continue To Outperform Bitcoin?

    Ethereum Price Remains Vulnerable, Will ETH Fall Back To $1K?

    Stablecoin Could be Russia’s Preferred Medium of Exchange for Foreign Trade: Chainalysis

  • Ethereum

    Finalized no. 25 | Ethereum Foundation Blog

    EF-Supported Teams: Research & Development Update

    Grantee Roundup: April 2021 | Ethereum Foundation Blog

    Announcing the EF Fellowship Program, Cohort #2

  • Blockchain
  • NFT Trends

    DeGods Removes Royalties from Resales

    Orange Comet Strikes Partnership with Sir Anthony Hopkins

    CNN’s NFT Platform Shuts Down, Users are Raging

    The SEC Casts a Beady Eye Over Yuga Labs’ Operations

  • Fashion Trends

    What to Wear Hiking This Summer

    35 Affordable Items I’m Eyeing From the Shopbop Sale

    12 Water-Based Makeup Products That Give You Dewy Skin

    The Best Postpartum Clothes I Wore on Maternity Leave

  • VR & Metaverse

    Meta Working With Ray-Ban On New Smart Glasses

    Quest Pro’s Controllers Have “Up To” 8-Hour Battery Life

    VR Developer Schell Games Donates $20K To Charities

    Meta Avatars Getting Legs Soon, And New Graphics Next Year

No Result
View All Result
Crypto Litter
No Result
View All Result
Home Stock News

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, March 2021

March 19, 2021
in Stock News
189
SHARES
1.5k
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

[ad_1]

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for March, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely peaked at 3.210 billion in July 2020. In February 2021, it estimated stocks dropped by 62 million barrels to end at 2.955 billion, 80 million barrels higher than a year ago.

The EIA estimated global oil production at 92.17 million barrels per day (mmbd) for January, compared to global oil consumption of 95.89 mmbd. That implies an undersupply of 3.72 mmb/d, or 104 million barrels for the month. That implies non-OECD stocks dropped by 42 million barrels in addition to the OECD stock draw of 62 million barrels.

For 2021, OECD inventories are now projected to draw by net 91 million barrels to 2.942 billion. For 2022 it forecasts that stocks will draw by 26 million barrels to end the year at 2.949 billion.

Oil

The EIA forecast was made incorporates the OPEC+ decision to cut production and exports. According to OPEC’s press release January 5, 2021:

“The Meeting acknowledged the need to gradually return 2 mb/d to the market, with the pace being determined according to market conditions. It reconfirmed the decision made at the 12th ONOMM to increase production by 0.5 mb/d starting in January 2021, and adjusting the production reduction from 7.7 mb/d to 7.2 mb/d.”

“The adjustments to the production level for February and March 2021 will be implemented as per the distribution detailed in the table below.

Oil

On March 4th, OPEC announced:

“The Ministers approved a continuation of the production levels of March for the month of April, with the exception of Russia and Kazakhstan, which will be allowed to increase production by 130 and 20 thousand barrels per day respectively, due to continued seasonal consumption patterns.”

The EIA has assumed the following OPEC production levels for its STEO:

Oil

Oil Price Implications

I updated my linear regression between OECD oil inventories and WTI crude oil prices for the period 2010 through 2020. As expected, there are periods where the price deviates greatly from the regression model. But overall, the model provides a reasonably high r-square result of 82 percent.

Oil

I used the model to assess WTI oil prices for the EIA forecast period through 2021 and 2022 and compared the regression equation forecast to actual NYMEX futures prices as of March 10th. The result is that oil futures prices are presently overpriced through the forecast horizon through December 2022.

Oil

Uncertainties

April 2020 proved that oil prices can move dramatically based on market expectations and that they can drop far below the model’s valuations, whereas prices in May through February proved that the market factors-in future expectations beyond current inventory levels.

In addition to uncertainty of how deeply and how long the coronavirus will disrupt the U.S. and world oil consumption, another issue is how long OPEC+ will constrain production, knowing that high prices provide incentive to other producers, such as shale, to restore their production.

Another uncertainty is whether the U.S. will lift sanctions on Iran this year while rejoining the Iran nuclear deal. Biden has clearly stated that he wants the U.S. back in the deal. That could put around 2 million barrels a day back into the world market.

Conclusions

Given the recovery in oil prices, it is likely that shale oil will respond by the higher incentives to produce. OPEC appears to be ignoring that factor. OPEC appears to also be ignoring the likely lifting of Iranian sanctions this year.

Check back to see my next post!

Best,
Robert Boslego
INO.com Contributor – Energies

Disclosure: This contributor does not own any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

[ad_2]

Related articles

Stocks stay strong, Suez still stuck!

Futures: All Eyes On This Week’s Crop Report

Tags: MarchOilOutlookpriceSupplyWorld
Share76Tweet47

Related Posts

Stocks stay strong, Suez still stuck!

Inflation concerns fade as Fed officials stay with the dovish theme. Oil takes flight as the Suez remains blocked....

Futures: All Eyes On This Week’s Crop Report

Cotton Cotton futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 84.68 while ending the week...

Mexican Peso Gains on Banxico Rate Hold, Sending USD/MXN Towards Key Support

Bank of Mexico, USD/MXN, Suez Canal, Wall Street - Talking PointsWall Street ticks higher after a better-than-expected jobless claims...

AAR CORP. (AIR) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

AAR CORP.  (NYSE: AIR) Q3 2021 earnings call dated Mar. 23, 2021 Presentation: Operator Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen...

Market Update – March 22 – Risk Off Jolt from Ankara

USDTRY, Daily A plunge in the Turkish lira jolted global markets, following the sacking of the nation’s central bank...

Load More
  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest

Trendsy Token Is Taking Over

Introducing A0K1VERSE- The New Metaverse From Steve Aoki –

The Sandbox Secures Strategic Partnership with Warner Music Group

Optimized Ethereum Mining Settings for Nvidia RTX 3060 Ti, RTX 3070, RTX 3080 and RTX 3090 GPUs

BTC To See Correction Below $10K, Predicts Founder Of Midas

Buy Stuff with Bitcoin | Which Online Stores Accept CryptoCurrency?

Bitcoin bulls ‘hold back’ as BTC’s monthly futures expiry approaches

Made in Umbria: IBM Food Trust helps certify food authenticity

BTC To See Correction Below $10K, Predicts Founder Of Midas

Can XRP Continue To Outperform Bitcoin?

Ethereum Price Remains Vulnerable, Will ETH Fall Back To $1K?

Stablecoin Could be Russia’s Preferred Medium of Exchange for Foreign Trade: Chainalysis

  • Coin Tracker
  • Bitcoin
  • Ethereum
  • Blockchain
  • NFT Trends
  • Fashion Trends
  • VR & Metaverse

© 2021 Crypto Litter - The #1 Source for Crypto Shit

No Result
View All Result
  • Coin Tracker
  • Bitcoin
  • Ethereum
  • Blockchain
  • NFT Trends
  • Fashion Trends
  • VR & Metaverse

© 2021 Crypto Litter - The #1 Source for Crypto Shit

  • RelevantRelevant(REL)$0.780.38%
  • Heart NumberHeart Number(HTN)$0.000553-30.47%
  • TadpoleTadpole(TAD)$7.32-1.74%
  • SEENSEEN(SEEN)$2.05-2.27%
  • EvedoEvedo(EVED)$0.082301-0.80%
  • MarginswapMarginswap(MFI)$0.184214-2.17%
  • SakeTokenSakeToken(SAKE)$0.0127135.28%
  • WTF TokenWTF Token(WTF)$0.0113500.17%
  • BNSD FinanceBNSD Finance(BNSD)$0.005461-5.83%
  • RobotinaRobotina(ROX)$0.00266138.50%