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Bitcoin’s price over the last few days has been particularly volatile. Just yesterday, BTC surged towards $59K but failed to breach this important resistance level.
Subsequently, it dropped towards the significant $56K mark, but bulls were quick to defend it and are pushing towards $59K once again.
The Technicals
Bitcoin is quickly approaching the key resistance at $59-60K, as of writing this update. A break above it can lead to a renewed rally back to the $60K territory. Bitcoin was able to trade above the latter for a whole month between mid-October to mid-November.
In between, on Nov-10 the current ATH was set – at $69K. As a reminder, Bitcoin was able to make a 2-day spike between $60K and $68K on Nov-6, just days before nailing the current ATH. Hence, the range of $59-60K is crucial for the bulls.
Technical indicators are slowly turning bullish, which means that the possibility of a retest of the important support at $53K is decreasing. The overall market is heating up, and December has been historically a very good month for crypto bulls in general.
The volume is still low. However, as mentioned, a break above the key resistance range at $59-60K can change that very fast (matter of the volume levels of the breakout). The daily RSI is curving up and has made a higher low, which supports the idea of a breakout of the key resistance.
The MACD is one or two days away from completing a bullish cross on the daily timeframe. If this happens, a new rally would be more likely to start.
The On-Chain
In terms of on-chain, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong as there’s no sign of aggressive distribution from long-term holders and miners.
However, it’s also worth looking at where the main possible sell pressure may come. To do so, on-chain analyst Crypto VizArt takes a closer look at the cyclical behavior of investors who bought their coins 6 to 24 months ago.
The cyclical behavior (Accumulation – Distribution) of 6-12M and 1-2Y old coins is one of the most fascinating aspects of the current market macro-cycle. Looking at 2013-2014, these players had two Accu-Dist phases during market double tops.
The analyst notes that in the current cycle, “we are observing a similar Acc-Dist phase” and that, at the moment, the 2nd wave is in accumulation mode.
He also outlines that it’s important to monitor the behavior of the players that are holding approximately 40% of the floating supply could be an indicator to map the next major top of the market.
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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.
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